Central Florida

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	103.0
Current RPI:	103
Expected SOS:	122
Current SOS:	122
Current Record:	18-11
Expected Record:	18-11
Current Conf Record:	9-7
Expected Conf Record:	9-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-2
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	136
Expected OOC SOS:	195

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-11	103.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	South Florida (156.0)	BE	A	56-74	W	100%
11-13	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	85-56	W	100%
11-18	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	H	53-50	W	100%
11-20	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	H	61-75	L	0%
11-23	Florida (7.0)	SEC	A	79-66	L	0%
12-12	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	72-62	W	100%
12-14	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	A	71-75	W	100%
12-18	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	H	50-72	L	0%
12-20	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	H	83-66	W	100%
12-28	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	H	62-45	W	100%
12-29	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	H	66-63	W	100%
1-2	South Florida (156.0)	BE	H	56-65	L	0%
1-5	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	H	99-69	W	100%
1-9	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	H	64-48	W	100%
1-12	East Carolina (100.0)	CUSA	A	88-85	L	0%
1-19	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	A	75-79	W	100%
1-23	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	H	78-67	W	100%
1-26	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	H	74-65	W	100%
1-30	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	A	50-58	W	100%
2-2	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	A	75-71	L	0%
2-6	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	H	60-58	W	100%
2-9	East Carolina (100.0)	CUSA	H	83-73	W	100%
2-13	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	A	93-71	L	0%
2-16	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	A	73-58	L	0%
2-20	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	H	70-82	L	0%
2-23	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	H	83-75	W	100%
3-2	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	H	67-76	L	0%
3-6	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	A	70-74	W	100%
3-9	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	A	70-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Central Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Central Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Central Florida	CUSA	26.15	26.15	58.27	58.27	4.32	4.32
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	4.20	4.20	73.33	73.33	1.96	1.96
Memphis	CUSA	4.18	4.18	87.50	87.50	3.14	3.14
UAB	CUSA	4.18	4.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	4.12	4.12	34.48	34.48	-1.28	-1.28
East Carolina	CUSA	4.07	4.07	54.17	54.17	0.34	0.34
South Florida	BE	3.48	3.48	37.93	37.93	-0.84	-0.84
Tulane	CUSA	2.42	2.42	58.06	58.06	0.39	0.39
Tulsa	CUSA	2.40	2.40	53.33	53.33	0.16	0.16
Houston	CUSA	2.37	2.37	62.07	62.07	0.57	0.57
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.37	2.37	54.84	54.84	0.23	0.23
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.34	2.34	46.67	46.67	-0.16	-0.16
Rice	CUSA	2.31	2.31	14.29	14.29	-1.65	-1.65
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.00	2.00	56.67	56.67	0.27	0.27
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.92	1.92	38.71	38.71	-0.43	-0.43
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.92	1.92	21.43	21.43	-1.10	-1.10
Middle Tennessee	SB	1.89	1.89	84.38	84.38	1.30	1.30
Stetson	ASun	1.86	1.86	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Howard	MEAC	1.81	1.81	21.43	21.43	-1.03	-1.03
Florida	SEC	1.81	1.81	78.12	78.12	1.02	1.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.80	1.80	30.00	30.00	-0.72	-0.72
Miami FL	ACC	1.75	1.75	81.25	81.25	1.10	1.10
Belmont	OVC	1.75	1.75	82.76	82.76	1.15	1.15
Old Dominion	CAA	1.72	1.72	17.24	17.24	-1.13	-1.13
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.23	0.23	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.23	0.23	7.14	7.14	-0.19	-0.19
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.20	0.20	67.86	67.86	0.07	0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	14.29	14.29	-0.14	-0.14
North Carolina	ACC	0.20	0.20	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	22.58	22.58	-0.11	-0.11
North Florida	ASun	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.19	0.19	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.18	0.18	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.17	0.17	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Florida International	SB	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.16	0.16	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Troy	SB	0.16	0.16	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.14	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Grambling	SWAC	0.14	0.14	0.00	0.00	-0.14	-0.14
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.11	14.81	14.81	-0.07	-0.07
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00